2018 was pretty eventful year for camera gear. Photokina saw to that. And in 2019 we should get to see what was announced then and later. The Panasonic FF cameras, Sigmas Foveon FF Camera and L Mount lenses, The Zeiss 'smart' camera, The Olympus m4/3 'Pro' body etc. We should get more FF mirrorless from Sony, (Now with some serious competition) Nikon and Canon and see smartphones fitted with ever more lenses and ever more 'computational' versions of 'proper' camera features. So dusting off my crystal ball here are a few predictions for 2019. (Be aware that what follows is strictly fun and has little basis in reality )
- Sales of stand alone will continue to fall. I suspect that this will bottom out when we reach the levels that 'serious' film cameras were at prior to digital. Small sensor 'cheap and cheerfuls' will fall to ridiculous prices and it may well be a good year for those looking for discounts on all camera gear as manufacturers seek to get rid of old stock to concentrate on a leaner product range. DSLR's sales will drop dramatically and will therefore end up as being the 'cool' hipster cameras of choice in a few years time !!!
- Smartphones will offer yet more simulated 'computational' effects. Some will see this as the future of photography, some will see it as a serious of gimmicks designed to pretend that smartphones have DSLR and Mirrorless type functionality. They don't but many will be convinced.
- The enthusiasm for FF Mirrorless will get even more fevered. And some manufacturers will see this as what they should be concentrating on for the future. There is this perception that 35mm / 'Full Frame' is what proper photographers should be using. The better noise performance and the supposed advantages of shallow DOF are key to this. And FF is regarded as having better image quality. Panasonic and Sigma are due to enter the marketplace next year. However, now they are finally involved I think Nikon and Canon will clean up, mostly at the expense of Sony who I suspect will significantly loose market share. Particularly when Nikon and Canon produce 'pro' mirrorless cameras. Panasonic are obviously out to tap into the professional / serious enthusiast market and to be honest I have no idea whether they will succeed or not. Hybrid photographers / Videographers will love their FF cameras, but their success depends on whether Nikon and Canon step up with their video offer. Canon certainly have some catching up to do and I wouldn't bet against them doing just that.
- Fuji can hopefully build on the success of the value for money X-T3. Because of their MF cameras however they don't seem to be keen on FF. Will this hold them back in terms of sales? I suspect it may well do that.
- Leica? Who knows. There must be a new SL, with a higher pixel count and non cropped video. My suspicion is that they will work even closer with Panasonic and we could well see Leica badged versions of the Lumix S1's. I think a more realised partnership with Panasonic would benefit both companies. and take Leica more into the mainstream. Whether or not they can find a way into the professional market will depend on what they can offer that justifies their high prices. Maybe we will finally get to see a fully compatible AF adapter for M lenses. That would make a lot of people very happy.
- Overall I think we will see a move towards the high end, highly specified hybrid camera. Cameras that can offer functionality and image quality that is light years beyond smartphones. This will come at a premium price, but for me it's the only way to go. Smartphones are now so good for everyday photography that it's pointless to try and compete. But the manufacturers will have to integrate more smartphone technology into their cameras. The Zeiss ZX1 is a step in the right direction but this needs to be added to interchangeable lens cameras.
- Following on from this it seems to me that the way to get Mirrorless Cameras to take over from DSLR's in the pro world is to give them web integrated technology. Just think of the advantages of news and sports photographers shooting pictures and the camera instantly transferring them to the cloud. Wedding, Portrait and Social Event photographers could be doing the same. For me wi-fi enabled cameras must be the way to go, and how hard is it to add sim card functionality to a camera? Taking the smartphone out of the equation would mean that Mirrorless high end cameras offer genuine advantages for pro's. And where the pro's go, everyone else usually follows.
- 8K? Well it's a nice idea but the size of 8K video files may well prohibit any significant development in the near future. And is it really needed? Personally I get a headache watching 4K on a huge TV screen for any length of time.
