Its that time again!
So lets see how I did last year and what I see in my crystal ball for 2012.
NIKON
Last year - "For
what seems like years there's been speculation about a D700 upgrade.
Basically people want the D3X sensor in a D700 type body. There's
rumours of a D800 or D900 doing this and I can see it happening. The D3X
is 2 yrs + old and Nikon probably feel that they can "allow" that
sensor, or something like it, into a more enthusiast level (cheaper)
camera. It will of cause get bought by professionals, who are as
reluctant to pay high prices as anybody else.
The
D300 is also getting somewhat old. It seems obvious that the D7000
sensor will get added to a higher end body & we'll get an
upgrade. D400?
A
D4 is due also. I would imagine slightly more pixels - 16MP? - with
better video and the same high ISO performance as the D3, maybe not as
good as the D3S.
The
rumour about Nikon and mirrorless, is for a small, interchangeable
camera with a sensor somewhere between a compact camera and m4/3. They
will introduce it, probably because they feel they should, but their
heart won't be in it. Despite rumours to the contrary DSLR's aren't
going anywhere for a while. With companies like Samsung and Olympus
dropping out out of that field, Nikon have even less competition than
before. Systems like m4/3 are very popular in the far east but the huge
US and European markets are much more DSLR orientated and likely to
remain so for some time. The DSLR isn't dead and likely to remain the
dominant camera in these markets for years to come.
On lenses I'm no Nikon expert so I'm not going to attempt any predictions other than a new 24-70mm f/2.8 with VR."
Next year - The D800 (36MP?) is still due, as is the D4 and something like a D400. I think the 16MP Sony sensor has more mileage for Nikon yet. Unfortunately I see more lenses and bodies for the dreadful Nikon 1 system.
CANON
Last year - "A
1Ds Mk IV is due. Canon are currently behind Nikon in the MP race, so
expect a pixel hike. The rumours are for a 32MP full frame sensor.
Expect upgraded video also. I Imagine they will keep the same body
shape.
At
some point in the year a 600D is due, if Canon follow their usual
timetable. However the 550D was such a well-specified camera its
difficult to see where they can go. Would they add more MP's and make
their low-end enthusiast camera have more than the 7D or 60D? I can't
see that happening. So if no more MP's, there's not much point in
upgrading.
I
can't see Canon only releasing one camera in the year, so will we see a
5D Mk III earlier than expected? If they follow the timetable it should
be appearing at the end of the year, but maybe it will be announced
late summer. I see this as a camera concentrating on video. My guess is
that it will be the best specified video DSLR they can come up with.
Slightly more MP's, maybe 25MP, to equal the D3X, articulated screen,
raw output for video etc. 5D Mk II's are getting used to make movies and
TV programmes so its logical to go in that direction.
My
off the wall prediction is for some designed for video lenses for the
continuous AF they will introduce in both the 1ds Mk III and 5D Mk III.
How many and what type, I don't know, but I think Canon see themselves
as the "inventors" of DSLR video and I think they are probably ticked
off at people saying the Panasonic GH2 is a better camera for video.
2011 is the year they show the world that Canon is the leader in that
field.
A
mirrorless Canon? Everything I read and see tells me not. I don't think
they believe in it and they are so far behind, they will have to get a
lot of lenses on the market very quickly. The EIS system? Sounds total
fantasy land me. A 22MP m4/3 size sensor, with ultra-fast small primes?
Sounds great, and who wouldn't want it, but apart from the first rumour
back in September everything has gone quiet. This obviously means it
will announced next week!! "
Next year - Canon seem to be swithching things around. The 1DX is obviously their 1D MkIII etc. upgrade and also a competitor for the Nikon D3s. It seems they are going with a 5DMkII upgrade, probably renamed, for the high MP customer, so expect some megapixel monster. We should get a 650D and some kind of upgrade for the 7D / 60D APS-C type camera.
Their answer to mirrorless seems to be a "super-compact". Whoopee!
SONY
Last year - "OK,
here's a real stick your neck prediction. Sony are a company that are
big enough to try something daring and just shrug it off if it fails.
They have a large range of DSLR's and will probably upgrade a few of
them. They will also expand the NEX system and add more lenses, probably
smaller than what they have.
However
I believe that the big news will come at the high end. I think they
still want to be a player in the full-frame pro market. The A900 and
A850 weren't the cameras to achieve this, so what do they do? I think
they will go in another direction. My prediction is that they will go
for a monster! A full-frame 32MP pellicle-mirror, EVF, full HD video
with continous AF, raw output, hybrid stills / video camera. This will
be an attempt to take out Nikon and Canon in one go, as they will price
it at something like £3000. It will be their attempt to grab the pro /
high end enthusiast market. It may also be a radical design, Sony have
no qualms about that, and may look like the offspring of a DSLR and a
video camera. They will also introduce a range of high-end video
friendly lenses, designed with Zeiss, which will be phenomenally expensive."
Next year - Its already been well trailed that there are two FF cameras coming out, 24MP and 36MP. more NEX lenses, possibly pancakes, and an interesting mirrorless a-mount version of the NEX-7 has been suggested. As ever with Sony these days, there will be some kind of surprise.
PANASONIC
Last year - The
GH2 and GF1 are recently announced, so what will Panasonic announce?
Well I see a 25mm f/1.4 and a "pro" zoom. Maybe the 12-75mm F/2.8 thats
been talked about, which could explain the lack of a wide-angle prime so
far.
However,
I see the big news as a collaboration with Leica on a GF1 follow-up.
Despite both companies talking down their association, I see it as in
both their interests to continue this. This camera will be primarily
made by Panasonic, with design input from Leica. I believe it will have
retro aspects but be modern. However in Leica tradition it will look
uncluttered and simple. It will take the Panasonic EVF and have an
optional optical viewfinder. To go with it there will a small number of
Leica MF primes with a m4/3 mount. These will of course be very
expensive and be outside of the current Panasonic range.
So the second outrageous prediction, though I will admit this is bordering very closely on personal wish fulfillment!!
Next Year - So much for my Leica collaboration! Instead we got the GX1. My prediction (more wishful thinking again) is that the GX1 will be so successful, they will abandon completely their GF3, compact lookalikes and continue down the retro - rangefinder look road.
We should see the "pro" zooms this year
LEICA
Last year - "See above. More S2 lenses - possibly an X2 announcement - dealing with all the criticisms of the X1. Some M-lens revamps."
Next year - They have announced some kind of mirrorless interchangeable system. But don't hold your breath. A Plutonium M9 special edition? (Looks good in the dark)
OLYMPUS
Last year - "My
initial thoughts on Olympus were "I haven't got a clue" On thinking
about it more I came up with "I still haven't got a clue!" E-PL2, and
E-P3 are obvious, with minor improvements. More lenses, including a 12mm
prime. Apart from that I really can't see where they can go. They need
something radical. A mirrorless vehicle for the 4/3 lens range is
possible, but they don't want to hurt E-5 sales. Maybe a quiet year for
Olympus."
Next year - Did I really write "Maybe a quiet year for Olympus" So much for my predictive powers. As to what they might produce - I haven't got a clue (again). And I suspect they don't either.
PENTAX / RICOH
Last year - "I think they will build on the success of the K-5 and the 645D. A new mid-range camera is probably on the cards.
There
are very strong rumours about a mirrorless camera. I think this may
happen, and may be a vehicle for their existing range of small and
pancake lenses. I don't think they will join m4/3 but will go their own
way like Samsung and Sony. If they do announce something, and do
remember Pentax aren't the fastest in this regard, then I think it will
be an APS-C camera. I don't think it will be super small in order to
accommodate their existing lenses, and may be designed to resemble their
heritage cameras. Spotmatic or MZ series possibly?
I assume we'll see more modules for the GXR."
Next Year - The new partnership might produce some exciting stuff. Hopefully the Pentax Q will disappear from sight and never be seen again, but I fear not. I really don't have much sense of what might come from this, but I just get the feeling that they are ones to watch for next year. Ricoh don't seem to have Pentax's conservatism and slow reaction time to everything, so I'm hopeful.
SAMSUNG
Last year - "We
already know that its NX all the way. I see more cameras and lenses
next year, with a Sony like strategy to include a camera at every
conceivable price point. Maybe a new sensor with more MP's. A high-end compact could also appear."
Nexr year - Did they hold back (and re-design) the NX20 after seeing the NEX-7? Unfortunately Samsung seem to be followers rather than innovators. The NX200 certainly showed they can make a great sensor. Lets hope we get a great camera to put in in.
FUJI
Last year - "Fuji
obviously have everything tied up with the X100. I see no more DSLR's
from them. Everything depends on how good the X100 actually is and
whether there is an appetite for this kind of retro styled compact in
the mass market. If it remains a niche market then it may be heading for
collectable status in a few years time. At its price point it has to be
really good, otherwise it will sink without trace."
Next year - The X100 WAS a success, and they seem ready to build on that. Another one to watch. The X100 type interchangeable lens system is already announced and Fuji seem like favourites to buy up Olympus should it become available. That amalgamation could be really exciting. Provided Fuiji don't inherit Olympus's accounting practices!
SIGMA
Last year - "Is
the SD1 with its 15MP (In real terms) Foveon sensor too late or is it
going to blow everything else away. We will see. Probably neither.
Always destined to be a niche product I think, though they do have an
amazing lens range for it!!
I
think 2011 will be the year that Sigma start producing lenses for the
mirrorless / e.v.i.l systems. With the growth in this market, can they
afford to ignore it? Maybe a few lenses to start with for m4/3 and Sony
NEX."
Next year - I did think that they would hide away after the SD1 debacle, and go back to making lenses. However I have a funny feeling they have one more attempt at international superstardom in them, in the guise of a super compact with the SD1 sensor, at a far more reasonable price and with interchangeable lenses. I'm seriously guessing here, but they need to recover their reputation, and I'm not sure they are prepared to leave it in the tatters it is at the present.
We should also see some of these lenses for NEX and m4/3, they have been promising.